Allez, Segolene
30% for Sarko, 25% for Sego. 85% turned out to vote; I think this is a combination of wanting to make absolutely sure that Le Pen didn’t get anywhere and that it’s a contested election.
It is initially hard to see where Sego’s support will come from. Certainly, you’d hope that the left would vote for her but may not turn out strongly and while she will pick up some of Bayrou’s vote.
This post does illustrate one of the problems with blogging - I don’t know a huge amount about French politics, do know a bit about elections, psephology and so on, want to say something and so post some semi-reconstituted rubbish. I’m not that keen on Sego, but I’d rather her than Sarko.
xD.
April 23rd, 2007 at 1:54 pm
Must disagree concerning your anti-Sarko opinion. I immigrated to France from America almost 20 years ago, and I’ve been lucky enough to know both countries from within. Sarko, much as he represents a more liberal economy, is a far cry from LePen, or even dubya, shrub, W… you know, the current occupant, Bush.
Although I am uncomfortable about some of Sarko’s flirtation with the far right (on immigration, etc) during the campaign, I do believe he offers the best chance to reform France. but I think he’s too much of a pragmatist to shoot himself in the foot economically as President by actually attacking immigration. Watch his spoken policy drop under the waterline as soon as he’s elected. He knows, as we all do, that the immigrants are the hardest-working people in France, and for less. Their contribution via work, consumption & taxes far outweighs the cost of keeping the door, if not exactly open, at least slightly ajar.
At the risk of sounding cynical, it’s not like one has to want to invite the guy over for dinner. If I must hold my nose while voting Sarko, so be it.
In any case, the Socialists are still defending “the French model” as if there was such a thing that could interest anyone in France or beyond with any understanding of economics. Sego can thus only offer empty promises for justice & benefits for all. Too bad the PS hasn’t learned from the lessons of the UK, Germany, & the Clinton democrats in the US… The old left ideas are broken, and only the “new left”, fiscally responsible, pro-growth, pro-business, and featuring a real sustainable social & environmental program can beat the right. If this existed in France, I’d vote Socialist again. Until them, Sarko has my vote.
April 23rd, 2007 at 2:32 pm
There are some issues to be addressed. I would be inclined to support the 35-hr week.
One thing that has to go is the opposition to allowing surveys that include people’s ethnicity. The notion that exists at the moment of La France and the corollary of Les Francais means that the state does not acknowledge and prevents others from looking at the possibility of shades of gray in the national and other identities of the French.
As to the new left vs old left, I profoundly disagree. I think a lot of the ideas of the third way are starting to flag and fail and, while there is no great resurgence of the left, there is a dissatisfaction with third way left politics in Europe that suggests it is on the wane and will not pick up in France.
April 23rd, 2007 at 4:30 pm
I think Sego will find it difficult to win the 2nd round. The far-right vote will go to Sarko and, i think, it will be difficult for her to get the clear majority of the centre vote she needs to win.
Sarko’s 30% plus Le Pen’s 11% means that the Right already has 41%. It only needs half of Bayrou’s 18% for Sarko to win. I think he will be able to do that, especially as the UDF has had a history of working very closely with the Gaullists.
One thing I will have to add, though, and have said on my blog, is that the high turnout is a good thing. It is good to see people enthused enough about an election to turn out in large numbers. Lately, in Britain, turnout has been falling to 60% or lower. France has shown that a fall in turnout is not inevitable, as theirs has risen to around 85%.