Comments on: PoliticalBetting.com and Jon Cruddas http://davecole.org/blog/2007/06/01/politicalbettingcom-and-jon-cruddas/ Thoughts, notes and comments Fri, 05 Dec 2008 10:56:49 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.1 By: Vino S http://davecole.org/blog/2007/06/01/politicalbettingcom-and-jon-cruddas/#comment-247 Vino S Fri, 01 Jun 2007 16:58:00 +0000 http://davecole.org/blog/?p=273#comment-247 There a a number of points that could be made. Firstly, apart from the regional factors you have mentioned, the support for Cruddas could be higher among bloggers than among ordinary trade union members and party members. By definition, bloggers are a rather self-selecting group and, perhaps, Labour bloggers are to the left of most Labour supporters.<br/><br/>Also, the betfair prices are based on a rather small amount of cash. At the moment, there is only about 30 grand staked on the outcome of the deputy leadership contest. By contrast, more than £10 million was staked on the outcome of the last England/West Indies test match. As such, perhaps the view of the (small) number of punters in the market is unrepresentative of the wider population. There a a number of points that could be made. Firstly, apart from the regional factors you have mentioned, the support for Cruddas could be higher among bloggers than among ordinary trade union members and party members. By definition, bloggers are a rather self-selecting group and, perhaps, Labour bloggers are to the left of most Labour supporters.

Also, the betfair prices are based on a rather small amount of cash. At the moment, there is only about 30 grand staked on the outcome of the deputy leadership contest. By contrast, more than £10 million was staked on the outcome of the last England/West Indies test match. As such, perhaps the view of the (small) number of punters in the market is unrepresentative of the wider population.

]]> By: El Dave. http://davecole.org/blog/2007/06/01/politicalbettingcom-and-jon-cruddas/#comment-246 El Dave. Fri, 01 Jun 2007 11:07:00 +0000 http://davecole.org/blog/?p=273#comment-246 Yes, they're from Betfair - I think the point stands, though, as it will be Cruddasite bloggers betting (if you see what I mean). Yes, they’re from Betfair - I think the point stands, though, as it will be Cruddasite bloggers betting (if you see what I mean).

]]> By: el Tom http://davecole.org/blog/2007/06/01/politicalbettingcom-and-jon-cruddas/#comment-245 el Tom Fri, 01 Jun 2007 10:57:00 +0000 http://davecole.org/blog/?p=273#comment-245 Indeed, looking back, it seems that the graph is actually drawn from the betfair index. Indeed, looking back, it seems that the graph is actually drawn from the betfair index.

]]> By: el Tom http://davecole.org/blog/2007/06/01/politicalbettingcom-and-jon-cruddas/#comment-244 el Tom Fri, 01 Jun 2007 10:51:00 +0000 http://davecole.org/blog/?p=273#comment-244 I'd say there's a bit of both, to be honest. But there is a question as to where PB gets its odds from. Are they always independently drawn, or are they an aggregate of any variety of real price?<br/><br/>London and blogger bias are both obvious. The question is, exactly how much bias do they create? I’d say there’s a bit of both, to be honest. But there is a question as to where PB gets its odds from. Are they always independently drawn, or are they an aggregate of any variety of real price?

London and blogger bias are both obvious. The question is, exactly how much bias do they create?

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