The Glasgow East by-election
OK, let’s be honest. It’s not good.
Via Liberal Conspiracy, I see that Lindylooz is using a flood metaphor for the turn against Labour. The only thing we don’t know is how high the tide is; it may start to recede and a few more Labour MPs may keep their heads above water. The question is whether the tide will be far enough out by 2010.
That having been said, I agree with a lot of the sentiments expressed by Luke Akehurst:
I think we in Labour need to take a deep breath, realise the good times were not going to roll for ever, get behind the man we elected with such overwhelming support that he didn’t even face a contested election and realise that it’s going to be a long haul, slow recovery through to a 2010 General Election. We need to get on with governing and delivering policies that will help people deal with the current economic circumstances.
As Luke says, Warwick II is going to be important for two reasons. They are the policies that come out of the Agreement and how they are presented. Labour, at the moment, is the victim of the general political narrative of drift (and maybe decay) promulgated by the newspapers. The summer recess allows all parties to regroup somewhat. Warwick, if a substantive policy event, will give Labour the weight it needs to rebuild itself before the General Election.
Much of what’s on the cards at Warwick would, I think, appeal to the electorate at the moment; we are in a period of economic uncertainty where people seek safety in their jobs and security if they lose them. The Guardian suggests a few areas that are up for discussion; they follow below the fold.
Some of them just aren’t going to happen; there isn’t the money to make prescriptions free and supportive strike action is going to play into the hands of the Tories. It does seem, though, that those demands might be being made to ensure that the others are accepted; internet balloting for strikes, for instance.
I don’t think the NI changes are going to happen; indeed, I’d have thought that it might be scrapped and rolled into income tax now that they kick in at the same level. Equally, a theme of Gordon Brown has been handing regulatory power away, such as interest rates to the Bank of England, so the demands for getting rid of OFGEM seem unlikely to be fulfilled while ’stopping oil speculation’ is, I think, more or less impossible.
However, there does seem to be a dissatisfaction with the large profits made by some of the privatised public services (you can hear Frankie Boyle waxing lyrical on Centrica, AKA British Gas, over at Beau Bo D’Or’s place). As London Overground seems to be working reasonably well, there might be a good story to tell so far as the railways are concerned. An agreement with the TOCs to limit profits while investment is made on electrification and freight transport has the advantages of being green and reducing consumption of diesel.
Some of the other policies are good for jobs and the pound in the pocket; relieving pressure on house prices2 and maintaining construction jobs are clearly going to be popular while the various ideas for the low-paid (equalising the minimum wage for younger workers, promotion of the living wage) would obviously appeal to Labour’s core vote. While I don’t think people particularly minded (or rather, noticed) the salaries of the very rich and the profits of certain types of companies that provide public services while times were generally good, the pinch is making the amount put away by some be noticed. Rather than obesciance to the market, a little more obvious correction of market failures and excesses might actually go down rather well.
Returning to the idea of a narrative, I don’t actually see the Tories doing much of the running at the moment. I think the papers have decided they don’t like Gordon and, coupled with some unnecessary mistakes, we’re suffering badly. However, if the PM takes the title of a post by (newly-elected NEC member) Peter Kenyon - “We need a chastened leader’s speech at Warwick” - and can show, through the unions, that he is actually taking on board the concerns of people who are feeling the squeeze, he may be able to change the narrative and (this is important) energise a few more party members to campaign for the next general election.
xD.
Some of those ideas for Warwick II
- Scrapping NHS prescription charges
Bringing hospital cleaning in-house
A new public sector pay agreement
Free school meals for primary school children
Reworking the NI system so it’s more progressive1
Start building social housing to provide construction jobs as well as homes
Improve employment rights enforcement
Stop oil speculation
Abolish Ofgem and government to become accountable to parliament for the industry and reduce prices to EU levels
A “not for profit” railway as franchises come up for renewal
Electrification of the rail network
More cash for freight to go by rail
Extending the adult minimum wage to 18- to 21-year-olds and apprentices
Allow councils to negotiate procurement contracts that include fair employment clauses.
Staff in city academies to be paid at the same rates as other school staff,
The right to five days a year paid educational leave for all workers
All firms bidding to run public services to be required to give guaranteed apprenticeship numbers.
Supportive strike action
Internet balloting for strikes
Tax deductions for union membership subscriptions
Extension of the Gangmasters Licensing Authority to construction.
Extending a duty to promote equality to the voluntary and private sectors
An extension of the child’s age limit from six to 16 for parental leave
1 - so workers earning under £5,000 pay nothing and those earning up to £40,000 pay less, while those earning over £100,000 pay more, climbing again for those over £1m a year
2 - yes, they’re going down at the moment, but they are still a long way from affordable for first-time buyers, there are some types of house that are in great shortage and the issue at the moment is liquidity which, as it resolves itself over time, doesn’t change the fact that we don’t have enough houses.
PS - congratulations for reading this far down. It’s a shame there weren’t blogs around circa 1995; I’d be able to see how similar this is to what Tories were saying back then.
