China, the unexpected and the impossible
China is on the up.
All, however, is not rosy. China faces a few problems; these are my impressions.
Tibet and Xinjiang both have groups that seek more autonomy or even independence. They are in the interior of the Asian continent and a long way from the rich cities of the coast. With disparate geography, I do wonder how Beijing will keep control of those provinces. I don’t think it’s a question of ‘if’, at least in the medium term, but what China must do to maintain its control and the resulting unforeseen consequences.
There is a growing middle class, it would seem, in China as the economy has taken off. Something in the back of my mind tells me, from my course on democracy and democratisation at LSE, that middle classes are good for democracy. However, China’s growth will not go on forever; the sheer size of its population means that there will be a crunch as people either can’t achieve the bourgeois lifestyle they want or find themselves slipping downwards. The PRC will also, I feel, reap the rewards of its one child policy; a demographically top-heavy population with lots of retirees to support from a relatively small number of workers.
The internet, mobile phones and other communications technologies mean both that it is harder for the Chinese Communist Party to keep tabs on everybody and that it is easier for people to organise themselves anonymously and/or spontaneously; viz., the ‘Anonymous‘ protests against Scientology and flash-mobbing. In and of themselves, they’re not hugely important (yet) but they do show a means to an end. This doesn’t mean anything unless there is something to protest about; in China, though, there is plenty. The corruption and incompetence of local officials, AIDS and environmental degradation seem to be issues that the CCP recognises it has to do something about and which protesting does not necessarily imply a rejection of the CCP.
Indeed, the Olympics may have been given to China at an inopportune time. Certainly, if the reactions I’ve seen on the television news are anything to go by (and I don’t put it past the CCP to have made sure that only people who towed the party line happened to be near any cameras), Tibet is precisely the wrong thing for the West to use as a leitmotif for its opposition to the rule of the CCP. It comes across as an attack on the Chinese nation when it is strong; the Olympics, through Billig’s process of banal nationalism, strengthen it. Looking to engage economically - making the comparison with Russia’s kleptocratic rule - might work rather better.
A final thought; there are lots of Chinese people overseas. As China grows and people look at returning home to make the most of the burgeoning economy, they may, as during Africa’s ‘Wind of Change’, take distinctly Western ideas with them; perhaps economic at first, but requiring good governance at all levels and, as a corollary, participation of the people in a more meaningful way.
I only mention all this because Mikhail Gorbachev’s recent comments in the media over the Russian-Georgian conflict reminded me that an awful lot of Kremlinologists were surprised to find that the USSR had suddenly gone. There are huge differences between the USSR and China, but the unexpected is not the impossible.
xD.
August 18th, 2008 at 11:50 am
If you followed the Shanghai and Shenzhen stockmarkets, I don’t think you’d describe them as “on the up”. You are right to say that the growing middle class is propelling the economy and that more power should devolve to the people and put pressure on the CCP. Still, at the moment, the CCP has an amazing ability to move round huge sections of the population. Look at how many people were relocated after the Sichuan earthquake. See how many people were laid off for 2 months whilst the factories around Beijing were closed for the Olympics. (My bet is that some of those were the spectators who were bussed in for the Games.) The power of the internet is an interesting question but the jury is out as many Chinese internet sites have been closed during the Olympics and the whole medium is carefully monitored. The one child policy is also an interesting one. Party cadres are often exempt from that whilst earthquake victims were complaining bitterly that schools fell down during the quake but Party buildings next door to them remained standing. The other point I would raise is that the Chinese are sending workers to Africa in droves. If those workers were allowed to take their families and be exempt from the one child policy on condition that the children were raised in Africa, there really could be world domination by the Chinese.
August 22nd, 2008 at 2:09 pm
Dave, I think China has shown us how it is a country of such extremes, what it is capable of in many ways, but how controlling and cruel it can be too with poverty and hardship still in existence for many. The China situation in Africa is really interesting and one I have been following in the news.
August 22nd, 2008 at 4:46 pm
WW,
Indeed; however, the stock markets are not the only indicator.
Ellee,
Absolutely. I was saying, rather less succinctly than you, that the nature of the resolution of conflict between extremes will determine China’s future and that its assumed path to world domination is not so certain.
xD.
September 1st, 2008 at 12:43 pm
Hi,
looking at the olympics, you see the desperate wish of China to be again one of the great nations. Whereas many people in the West think of China as “emerging from nothing”, the Chinese have, at least in my opinion, a lack of national self-confidence because of their downfall in the 19th and 20th century- Opium Wars, Boxer rebellion, Sino-Japanese war. And now, they are back ;).
I competely agree with you that China has serious problems to solve, but I don’t think THE PARTY will lose its power in the near future.
On the other hand, world domination will be a tough thing to achieve, not because China lacks people and money, but because of the competition with India, Russia, Europe and the US.
September 5th, 2008 at 3:35 am
Hi Dave, your analysis of China strikes me as pretty astute. You’re definitely right about the middle class, economic tensions and secessionist movements.
What also striking, however, is how far today’s China is from anything resembling Communism. It’s not a totalitarian state, but very obviously post-totalitarian. What worries me more than traditional style dictatorship is a new sort of authoritarianism where politics is liberalized but media increasingly is used to keep people in awe. I can see a long time convergence here between China and Russia (and lets through in the US too just for good measure).
yours always,
Erik