A prediction for the US elections
McCain will take the White House but that the Dems will take both House and Senate handsomely.
People are misunderestimating (sic) one of the main effects of Palin - getting campaigners out between now and polling day. It will energise ‘the base’ but it has more particularly given the activists the belief that they could win the White House.
I originally wrote this in a comment over at Ewan Watt’s blog. As you can see from the top-right corner of this blog, I have a few hats. I won’t be eating any of them if I’m wrong as I’m not that sure; as we know, a week is a long time in politics. There’s a month left.
xD.
October 9th, 2008 at 8:10 pm
It will be interesting to see how close this is.
October 10th, 2008 at 11:26 am
My bet is he’ll lose if they bail out Morgan Stanley & Goldmans
October 14th, 2008 at 9:45 am
I am surprised that you have come to that conclusion, Dave. Three weeks or so ago I might have been less sure, but I think now it is not a case of if he will win, but by how much. Even Florida is now leaning towards Obama.
As you say though, a week - let alone a month - is a long time in politics. It will be interesting to see how the American’s think on the day about having both houses and a President from the same party - this could be a factor that does cause some to vote McCain.
But I will offer to eat all of your hats if the Republicans do win. I do hope you are wrong on this one - and not just because I don’t want a mouthful of Bowler and Flapcap come next month.