The magic number sixty
In the US Senate, sixty votes can stop a filibuster. The Democrats aren’t quite there yet, holding fifty-five seats. Two independents, Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, caucus with the Dems, taking them to fifty-seven, just three away from a filibuster-proof majority.
Amongst all the celebrations around Barack Obama’s victory, people haven’t really noticed some of the other results. Just about the tightest race is the Minnesota senatorial race, where the incumbent, Republican Norm Coleman, is being challenged by DFLer Al Franken, a comedian originally of Saturday Night Live fame. As things stand, Coleman is leading Franken by two hundred and thirty-six votes, or slightly more than one one-hundredth of a percent. That triggers an automatic recount under Minnesota state law. Franken could be number fifty-eight, leaving the Dems two away from the magic number sixty.
I feel that Coleman, a former DFLer, is being somewhat disingenuous in calling for Franken to waive his right to a recount. 236 is a tiny number when nearly 2.9m votes have been cast; already, Franken has gained one hundred votes in Pine County because an election official wrote down ’24′ instead of ’124′; that’s before the recount has begun. A good feature of the US electoral system is that the new Congress will not convene until January 3rd, 2009, giving plenty of time for recounts like this; the Minnesota Secretary of State has suggested that the process may not be complete until the middle of December.
In Georgia, a run-off looks likely as no candidate has achieved the 50% required by state law while Ted Stevens is unlikely to continue to serve as senator from Alaska while in prison. In any case, the next set of senatorial elections are just two years away.
At least one GOP Senator will be retiring in 2010 – Sam Brownback of Kansas – although it is unlikely a Democrat will win there. There are fifteen seats held by Democrats and nineteen by Republicans. The other races are, with states that voted for the other party of the incumbent facing re-election at the Presidential election are below the fold.
The next two years may not be easy for Obama. However, Howard Dean’s campaigning machine may deliver a couple of surprises in a couple of years and any Republican who filibusters is opening themselves to an onslaught come election day.
Alabama (Richard Shelby, GOP)
Alaska (Lisa Murkowski, GOP)
Arizona (John McCain, GOP)
Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln, Dem)
California (Barbara Boxer, Dem)
Colorado (Ken Salazar, Dem)
Connecticut (Chris Dodd, Dem)
Florida (Mel Martinez, GOP)
Georgia (Johnny Isakson, GOP)
Hawai’i (Daniel Inouye, Dem)
Idaho (Mike Crapo, GOP)
Illinois (Currently held by Barack Obama1)
Indiana (Evan Bayh, Dem)
Iowa (Chuck Grassley, GOP)
Kansas (Sam Brownback, GOP)
Kentucky (Jim Bunning, GOP)
Louisiana (David Vitter, GOP)
Maryland (Barbara Mikulski, Dem)
Missouri (Kit Bond, GOP) 2
Nevada (Harry Reid, Dem)
New Hampshire (Judd Gregg, GOP)
New York (Chuck Schumer, Dem)
North Carolina (Richard Burr, GOP) 3
North Dakota (Byron Dorgan, Dem)
Ohio (George Voinovich, GOP)
Oklahoma (Tom Coburn, GOP)
Oregon (Ron Wyden, Dem)
Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter, GOP)
South Carolina (Jim DeMint, GOP)
South Dakota (John Thune, GOP)
Utah (Robert Bennett, GOP)
Vermont (Patrick Leahy, Dem)
Washington (Patty Murray, Dem)
Wisconsin (Russ Feingold, Dem)
xD.
1 – Replacement to be decided by Rod Blagojevich, the Democratic Governor
2 – Missouri has yet to be called; McCain is currently ahead by 1%. CNN page.
3 – North Carolina has yet to be called; McCain is currently ahead by 1%. CNN page.
November 8th, 2008 at 11:12 pm
Yes, I’m watching this one too. If they make the 60, they have autocracy.
November 20th, 2008 at 1:09 am
[...] to my earlier post on the issue, the Democrats have moved closer to sixty senate seats with the victory of Mark Begich over [...]
December 3rd, 2008 at 8:14 pm
[...] That means, barring a death or resignation, that the Democrats cannot achieve a filibuster-proof sixty-seat majority in the Senate; 59 is still achievable depending on the outcome of the recount in [...]