Dear Nick (if I may call you that),

I’ve been thinking about the next election. There seems to be a decent chance that there will be a hung parliament. It is, of course, possible that one party will be so close to an overall majority that they will form an alliance with one of the small parties to take them over fifty per cent.

It seems rather more likely that either the Conservatives or Labour will require the support of the Liberal Democrats to form a government. This puts the LibDems in a bit of a quandary. I’m quite sure that if the LibDems form a coalition with the Conservatives, I will, at the following election, be telling people that voting LibDem is the same as voting Conservative, and I bet my opposite number will be doing the same..

There are advantages to forming a coalition – ministries, influence and profile. You would be able to exercise the nuclear option of withdrawing from government and forcing an election at any time and stop some of the more egregious policies from coming to fruition. I would say that those advantages could well, like fairy gold, disappear in the morning light.

As you know, there are some people in your party who find the idea of backing the Tories anathema (we used to call them the SDP, and with the Trots well and truly purged from Labour, it’s not that far to move back) and some who find the idea of backing Labour anathema (we used to call them the Liberals). Splits and defections are not impossible; remember that you’ll be backing the ruling party for perhaps four years and will be part-responsible for all their actions for that time. Of course, there might be a snap election to get rid of the coalition partner, and then you’d be in a very unfortunate position.

You’d also have to toe the party line. Not an easy thing; the Tories are increasingly anti-European and there are a number of rising stars who do not, frankly, seem very liberal.

I think this would be bad. I think we need a couple more parties represented in Parliament, not one less, and we certainly need a small-l liberal party to counteract the authoritarian tendencies of both Conservatives and Labour.

So what to do?

Well, you can still hold the balance of power without having to risk attaching yourself too closely to one party. Offer whichever party has most votes (as opposed to seats) confidence and supply. Tell them you’ll vote through the budget and against any motion of no-confidence. On everything else, vote as you would like to; support the good, amend the ugly and stop the bad. You can still force an election if you want if things become too bad, you’re not tied into supporting policies which are a long way away from what you want and you’re making sure that your party stays together.

Moreover, you can honestly say that you’re making sure the country is governed by providing confidence and supply but that you are still holding the government to account. You retain your integrity.

Best wishes,

Dave.

Posted on Sunday, November 8th, 2009 at 10:28 pm
Categories: Elections, LibDems, Politicae Britannicae, Politics.
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